Friday, July 12, 2013

Big Brother Power Rankings: Week 3

This is my fourth Big Brother season, and the last three weeks have been crazier than anything I've ever had the opportunity to watch. Things are nuts, and it's almost becoming pointless to try and predict what's going on. The MVP twist is both super predictable and is creating absolutely unexpected results, the house racism watch is off the charts, the alliance everyone thought was strong fell apart in a matter of hours, one houseguest is finally showing the promise she hadn't delivered on...

Let's just get to it, since it's clear I have no idea what I'm doing.

First, last week it seemed as if the Moving Company alliance was going to steamroll the house early. Nick was in control, Spencer was expertly playing all sides, Jeremy taking the heat. At some point, though, Helen and Elissa along with Candace figured out that the men were working together, and when Elissa won the MVP again, she put Jeremy up. Jeremy won the veto rather easily, and Nick went up as the replacement. At this point, the Moving Company split, giving Elissa yet another reprieve and watching Nick get blindsided and backdoored. I really thought Nick (who was #1 in my power rankings last week) had a solid shot at winning this thing, and, well, apparently so did 7 players.

The revelation, however, is the sudden control Helen took of the game. She convinced Amanda to get McCrae involved. She corralled Jessie and Candace (and maybe Howard) into an agreement, if not an outright alliance. She played Spencer hard. She even got Jeremy to respect her, and I don't think Jeremy respects anyone that isn't himself. It was an impressive showing on all fronts.

So this week, Helen wins the Head of Household in a memory game. Of course she does. Elissa is aligned tightly with Helen, and will almost certainly win MVP again this week, which means that they get three nominations. I expect Aaryn to be one of those nominees, and the targets from Helen's group appear to be Aaryn, Jeremy, Kaitlin, GinaMarie, and quite possibly Spencer. With Helen effectively controlling the votes of Candace, Elissa, McCrae, Amanda, Jessie, Andy, Judd, and perhaps Howard, it's highly likely that what this group wants, they're going to get. If you're a fan of schadenfreude, the next few weeks will be crucial for you.

With all this said, here we go.

Helen jumps from #11 to #1 with her showing this week. If things go her way at all this week (and they will, and we all know it), she's pretty much in control of this house for the foreseeable future, barring any sort of extra drama from her side of the house.

McCrae timed his move out of the Moving Company almost perfectly, has enough respect from both sides of the house currently to stay out of the crosshairs, is still competing well, and is sitting in a great spot. If he times things correctly, he could take back control of the house with a good group behind him when things settle down.

Grudging respect to Elissa for being the target two weeks in a row, winning MVP two weeks in a row, and having her nominee go home two weeks in a row. This will be the first week she won't be on the block, she'll probably win MVP again, and, while her nomination track record is unlikely to hold up with so many juicy targets available, she's effectively Helen's right hand woman and a solid meatshield for the heat Helen might take. She's in a great spot.

Amanda effectively got in with Helen early, and dragged McCrae over with her. She's turning out to be more brains than boobs after all, and she's shown herself to be a bridge builder in trying to get Aaryn to tone down the racism. While it didn't work, that sort of gameplay pays out dividends in the short term.

Judd is slowly running the risk of being viewed as a floater in the long term, but in the short term, he's shown himself to be savvy player with a great social game. That can get you pretty far, so I'm willing to put him at #5.

Spencer drops to #6 after the implosion of the Moving Company. He's benefiting from being a smaller target than Jeremy, Kaitlyn, or the racist sisters, but that doesn't mean too much. His gameplay overall tells me he could turn it around, and I doubt he'll be anything worse than a replacement nominee this week if he goes on the block at all, but dropping from #3 to #6 seems right.

Howard is respected, he's feared, and he's emotional. He also isn't living up to his potential as a game player, although there are plenty of social game indications that look positive. He drops from #5 to #7 more due to positive moves others have made than his own gameplay, but he needs to step it up.

Candace has a lot of sympathy in the house, and rightfully so. She also still hasn't accomplished anything. She moves from #14 to #8 more because of how things shook out this week and because the House no longer appears to have the tolerance for Aaryn's shenanigans. Candace needs to move and do something soon, or she'll be a quick target.

Jessie is useless, and in the worst spot among Team Helen in the short term. She won't be a target for either side, but she's not going to change anything in the short term, either. Textbook definition of a floater - no social game, no competitive ability.

Jeremy will almost certainly be nominated this week, either as an official nomination, or as a replacement to keep him from playing in the veto competition if at all possible. Will he go home? It's entirely possible, but not 100% likely. As the best (only?) competitor in the non-Helen side of the house, he's a big target, but also the most likely to save himself.

Kaitlin's existence is solely based on Jeremy's. If Jeremy leaves, she won't be far behind. If Jeremy can't use a veto to save her when she becomes the target, she'll be gone unless she learns how to play a competition.

GinaMarie had a meltdown when Nick left the House because she didn't get to kiss him. Yup. Also, she's said a variety of racist stuff, is fully on Team Aaryn, and is probably the second most likely person to go home this week, and is not likely to be allowed to go to the jury house if Team Helen gets their wish. It's only a matter of time.

Aaryn was at #4 last week, but it's pretty safe to say that the chickens have come home to roost for her. Between the doubling down on the racism, the mean girl mentality, and the fact that she only got to be HOH because Jeremy handed it to her as part of a Moving Company ploy, I fully expect her to be the target this week and to go home unless she wins the veto. Elissa hates her, Helen hates her, and Aaryn is effectively the source of 90% of the drama in the house. She will be on the block this week, and will almost certainly go home.

I'm so excited for this week, I can hardly stand it. Check back next Friday!


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